PDoom
A measure of the probability of existential risk from AI.
PDoom is a way to think about the chances that artificial intelligence could cause humanity's end. It's a serious concern for some AI researchers and developers.
Imagine a future AI that becomes super smart, much smarter than humans. PDoom tries to estimate how likely it is that this super AI might do something that leads to human extinction, even if it wasn't programmed to do so. It's a way to quantify a very difficult and uncertain future risk.
PDoom is a metric representing the estimated probability of an artificial intelligence system causing human extinction. It is a concept discussed in the context of AI safety and existential risk, aiming to quantify the potential negative outcomes of advanced AI development.
The precise calculation or methodology for PDoom is not standardized and varies among researchers. It often involves complex modeling of future AI capabilities, alignment failures, and potential catastrophic scenarios. Discussions around PDoom are often qualitative or based on expert elicitation rather than precise empirical data.
The term PDoom is appearing as AI capabilities advance rapidly, prompting renewed focus on long-term safety concerns. Discussions around future AI risks, like those potentially measured by PDoom, are becoming more prominent in the AI research community.
- AI 2025 → 2026 Live Show | Part 1Google · The Cognitive Revolution ·
- Google Gemini
- Google Gemini researchers and commentators sometimes discuss existential risks from AI, which is the domain where PDoom is relevant.
- Doom
- A measure of the probability of existential risk from AI. PDoom is a speci
The term PDoom is a portmanteau of 'probability' and 'doom,' specifically applied to AI existential risk. It emerged from discussions within the AI safety community.
While PDoom itself isn't directly testable, you can explore AI safety concepts by using a chatbot like Google Gemini or ChatGPT. Ask it questions about AI safety, existential risk, or the alignment problem to see how it responds and to gauge its understanding of these complex topics.
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Questions people ask
- Is PDoom a real number?
- PDoom is not a precisely calculated number but rather a conceptual measure used to discuss the likelihood of AI causing human extinction.
- Who is worried about PDoom?
- AI researchers, ethicists, and policymakers concerned about the long-term safety and potential risks of advanced artificial intelligence are the ones who discuss PDoom.
First seen on Subvolts Dec 18, 2025. Updated Sep 18, 2026. Written by an AI model from the items above and reviewed against them weekly; report an error.