Big Pharma Fails 50% of the Time in Phase Three. AI Can Fix That | Vin Singh, BullFrog AI

It costs up to $2 billion and fifteen years to develop a drug, and big pharma still fails half the time at the final stage. BullFrog AI founder, Chairman, and CEO Vin Singh joins Craig Smith with a clear diagnosis of why: the industry keeps picking the wrong drug target from the beginning, and no amount of downstream optimization fixes a fundamentally wrong starting point. Built on AI technology originally developed at Johns Hopkins' Applied Physics Lab, BullFrog has assembled a three-stage platform that cleans messy clinical data, runs causal analysis to map disease pathways, and then ranks competing drug targets using a competitive framework that removes the subjectivity most pharmaceutical decision-making still relies on.

The most striking results in this conversation come from two case studies: work with the Lieber Institute for Brain Development - analyzing thousands of post-mortem brains - that led to the identification of potential driver genes for depression, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia in months from data that researchers had spent fifteen years studying, and a pancreatic cancer trial where BullFrog's platform identified a patient subgroup with survival rates three times higher than the study average. Vin also delivers a candid assessment of the broader AI-pharma landscape: more than 90% of AI deals in the space are missing their milestones, most companies are wrapping open-source tools rather than building genuine technology, and the shakeout between players and pretenders is already well underway.

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