Subvolts take Prediction markets are trying to become news, creating unsettling and potentially illegal situations. Mar 5, 2026 - Business
- Understand how new platforms can create ethical and legal challenges through market incentives and potential misuse.
- Everyday users
- Learn about the unsettling ways prediction markets are impacting news and the potential for betting on real-world events.
This episode features a deep dive into a controversial and emerging market that is raising significant ethical and legal questions.
Prediction markets want to be the news
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From Subvolts
Summary and analysis by Subvolts editorial, AI-assisted.
Decoder with Nilay Patel discusses prediction markets and their increasing role in the news cycle with senior reporter Liz Lopatto. The episode explores how these markets, by incentivizing insider trading, create predictable problems and unsettling, potentially illegal situations. Lopatto's reporting highlights the "depravity economy" and the controversial nature of betting on real-world events.
Imagine betting on whether a specific news event will happen. Prediction markets let people do this, but they are increasingly trying to act like news sources themselves. This can lead to problems because people might bet based on secret information they have, not just public knowledge.
This episode is for anyone interested in the intersection of finance, news, and emerging technologies. It explains how prediction markets, by aiming to be news sources, create ethical and legal quandaries due to insider trading incentives. Listeners will understand the "depravity economy" and the growing controversy around betting on significant global events. This connects to AI by examining how new platforms can be exploited and the regulatory challenges they present, mirroring concerns around AI's societal impact.
- HostNilay Patel
- GuestLiz Lopattosenior reporter, The Verge
- Guest: Liz Lopatto, senior reporter at The Verge
- Show: Decoder with Nilay Patel
- Length: 45 minutes
- Topic: Prediction markets inserting themselves into the news cycle
- Problem Highlighted: Position incentivizes insider trading, creating predictable problems
Today let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways.
My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position which directly incentivizes insider trading. That in turn creates a long list of very predictable problems.
Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.
Links:
- Prediction markets want to eat the news | The Verge
- How anonymous bettors cashed In on the Iran strike | NYT
- With Iran, Kalshi & Polymarket Bet on the Depravity Economy | 404 Media
- Polymarket pulls bet on nuclear detonation in 2026 | 404 Media
- Polymarket defends betting on war as ‘invaluable’ | The Verge
- Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture | The Verge
- Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO bets no | Decoder
- Prediction markets roll out war bets beyond Washington’s reach | Bloomberg
- Polymarket partners with Substack for some reason | The Verge
- It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets | The Verge
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Credits:
Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.
Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.
The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.
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- prediction markets
- Liz Lopatto
- Platforms where people bet on the outcome of future events.
- insider trading
- Liz Lopatto
- Buying or selling stocks based on private, non-public information.
- depravity economy
- Liz Lopatto
- A term for markets that profit from bets on negative or sensitive events.
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Questions people ask
- What is the main issue with prediction markets acting as news sources?
- Their position as news sources incentivizes insider trading, creating a host of predictable problems and potentially illegal situations.
- What is the 'depravity economy' in this context?
- It refers to prediction markets profiting from bets on negative or sensitive real-world events, such as wars or political instability.
Page generated Oct 19, 2026. Summaries are Subvolts' own; the audio, artwork and notes belong to The Verge.