Subvolts take AI pioneer Jürgen Schmidhuber details hardware limits, open-source impact, and the path to AGI. Jul 9, 2026 - Developers
- Learn about foundational AI concepts and Schmidhuber's views on the future of AI development, including open-source.
- Business
- Understand potential shifts in AI investment and the long-term trajectory of AI technology beyond current trends.
- Everyday users
- Gain perspective on the future of AI, its limitations, and how it might evolve beyond today's popular applications.
This episode features a foundational AI researcher discussing core challenges and future visions for artificial intelligence.
Ep 90: AI Pioneer Jürgen Schmidhuber on the State of AI Today
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From Subvolts
Summary and analysis by Subvolts editorial, AI-assisted.
This podcast episode features AI pioneer Jürgen Schmidhuber discussing the current state of artificial intelligence. Schmidhuber argues that physical hardware limits true AGI, predicts a correction in AI data center investments due to open-source progress, and emphasizes artificial curiosity over internet data for general intelligence. He also revisits AI safety and envisions self-replicating robots colonizing the solar system.
AI pioneer Jürgen Schmidhuber explains that super-smart AI is held back by computer chips, not just data. He believes open-source AI will catch up to big companies, and that AI needs to be curious and experiment to become truly intelligent, not just learn from the internet.
This episode offers insights from a foundational AI researcher on the future of AGI, hardware limitations, and the role of open source. Schmidhuber's perspective challenges current industry trends, particularly the massive investments in data centers. It's for anyone interested in the long-term trajectory of AI, the debate between closed and open development, and the philosophical underpinnings of intelligence. His views contrast with the rapid, often hype-driven, progress seen in frontier labs like OpenAI and Google Gemini.
- HostJacob Effron
- HostJordan Segall
- GuestJürgen SchmidhuberAI Pioneer
- Guest: Jürgen Schmidhuber
- Title: Ep 90: AI Pioneer Jürgen Schmidhuber on the State of AI Today
- Show: Unsupervised Learning
- Length: 51 minutes
- Schmidhuber's Argument: True AGI is bottlenecked by physical hardware.
- Schmidhuber's Prediction: AI data center investments face a correction as open-source advances.
Dr. Jürgen Schmidhuber, a renowned scientist and AI researcher widely regarded as one of the pioneers in the field, originated key ideas behind today's transformers, LSTMs, and recursive self-improvement through his lab's work. He argues that true AGI remains bottlenecked by physical hardware, that today's AI data center investments are headed for a correction as open-source keeps pace with closed labs, and that the path to general intelligence runs through artificial curiosity and self-generated experimentation rather than internet data. He closes by reconsidering mainstream AI safety arguments and offers a sweeping vision of self-replicating robot societies eventually colonizing the solar system.
(0:00) Intro
(1:24) How Close Is Superhuman AI?
(2:27) Why ChatGPT Didn't Surprise Him
(3:21) The Path to Recursive Self-Improvement
(9:01) Will AI Takeoff Feel Sudden?
(11:02) Intelligence Means Efficiency
(12:32) Advice for Labs: Beyond Human-Biased Data
(17:10) Artificial Curiosity and the Theory of Fun
(21:33) When Do We Get the AI Scientist?
(24:07) AI Chemistry, MOFs, and Carbon Capture
(25:04) Robotics Reality Check
(28:23) The Data Center Bet: Overbuilt?
(31:48) Open Source vs. Closed Labs
(34:25) Does Being First to RSI Create a Moat?
(38:06) AI Safety and Alignment Skepticism
(43:44) Quickfire
Jacob is an AI investor at Redpoint Ventures. He's led Redpoint's investments in companies like Abridge, Physical Intelligence & Legora. Follow Jacob on Twitter (@jacobeffron).
On Unsupervised Learning we probe the sharpest minds in AI in search for the truth about what's real today, what will be real in the future and what it all means for businesses and the world. If you're a builder, researcher or investor navigating the AI world, this podcast will help you deconstruct and understand the most important breakthroughs and see a clearer picture of reality. Subscribe to this show to stay up to date on our latest episodes.
- AGI
- Jürgen Schmidhuber
- Artificial General Intelligence, or AI that can perform any intellectual task a human can.
- LSTMs
- Jürgen Schmidhuber
- Long Short-Term Memory networks, a type of recurrent neural network used in AI.
- RSI
- Jürgen Schmidhuber
- Recursive Self-Improvement, where an AI system can improve its own capabilities.
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Questions people ask
- What bottlenecks true AGI according to Schmidhuber?
- Schmidhuber argues that true AGI remains bottlenecked by physical hardware limitations.
- How does Schmidhuber view current AI data center investments?
- He believes current AI data center investments are headed for a correction as open-source keeps pace with closed labs.
Page generated Oct 19, 2026. Summaries are Subvolts' own; the audio, artwork and notes belong to by Redpoint Ventures.